A city product is a graphic and a data set of 1 variable with annual values from 1951 to 2100, including all models and all pathways.

  • Graphic (PNG)

Graphic sample over a European city (annual trend of surface temperature from 1951 to 2100, under historical, moderate (RCP4.5) and rising (RCP8.5) pathways). All CMIP5 models are included.

  • Dataset (CSV)

Dataset sample over the same European city (RCPXX refers to the scenario followed by the models name (e.g., BNU-ESM)).

Recommended use

City product is useful for quick exploration of future climate conditions at a specific location. It is intended to inform about possible trends and support qualitative assessments.   

For example at early stage of program design, it provides the background information to infer a general understanding of the extent to which climate change may affect the development goals in your region of interest (e.g., to assess how heat waves or heavy precipitation may evolve and impact food security).

Going further 

At a later stage of your project (e.g., implementation, evaluation), more detailed, quantitative and local information may be needed. For instance, to account for local phenomena like the urban heat island effect that modulates small scale changes and requires higher resolution and specific modeling to be resolved. For these stages, we advise you to contact specialized companies such as environmental consulting firms. Don’t hesitate to contact us if you need advise.

Methodology

City data are all remapped and adjusted with the CDF-t method (learn more in our article “The CDF-t method”) on a reference grid and quality controlled.

To extract city-level information, we consider the values of the nearest grid point  representative of an approximate 2500 km² surface.

It does not account for local phenomena like the “urban heat island” effect that modulates small scale changes and requires higher resolution (typically 1km and below) and specific modeling to be resolved.

Availability

We provide city level graphics and data in more than 4,300 cities worldwide that have more than 100,000 inhabitants.

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